报告题目：The impact of vaccine hesitancy on SARS-CoV-2 variants

报告人：薛玲 教授哈尔滨工程大学

照片：

邀请人：白振国

报告时间：2023年11月9日（星期四）上午9：30

腾讯会议ID：343-122-257会议密码：1109

报告人简介：哈尔滨工程大学数学科学学院教授、博士生导师、生物数学团队学科带头人、黑龙江省工业与应用数学会常务理事、黑龙江省工程与应用重点实验室副主任。2013年在美国堪萨斯州立大学获得博士学位，2014年至2016年，在美国杜兰大学数学系与数学计算科学中心，从事博士后研究工作，合作导师是James. Mac Hyman教授；2016年至2017年，受到加拿大太平洋数学研究院和加拿大曼尼托巴大学数学系的联合资助，在加拿大曼尼托巴大学数学系与Julien Arino以及Felicia Magpantay共同合作研究。在Journal of Differential Equation、Journal of Mathematical Biology、SIAM J Appl Math、Bulletin of Mathematical Biology、Journal of Theoretical Biology、Mathematical Biosciences等SCI期刊发表论文40余篇。

报告摘要：In this talk, I present a model that couples a compartmental disease transmission framework featuring two strains of SARS-CoV-2 with game theoretical dynamics on whether or not to vaccinate to determine the extent that public opinion regarding vaccination can induce or hamper the emergence of new variants. We find that decreasing the perceived costs of vaccinators and increasing the perceived risks of infection (that is, decreasing vaccine hesitation) will decrease the possibility of vaccine-resistant mutant strains becoming established by about fourfold for intermediate mutation rates. We also find that once a new variant has emerged, perceived risk of being infected by the original variant plays a much larger role than perceptions of the new variant in determining future outbreak characteristics. Furthermore, we find that rapid vaccination under non-pharmaceutical interventions is a highly effective strategy for preventing new variant emergence, due to the interaction between non-pharmaceutical interventions and public support for vaccination. Our findings indicate that policies that combine combating vaccine-related misinformation with non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as reducing social contact) will be the most effective for avoiding the establishment of harmful new variants.