报告题目： Evaluation of prevention and control interventions and its impact on the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 in Chongqing and Guizhou Provinces

报 告 人：王开发 教授 西南大学

照    片：

邀 请 人：白振国

报告时间：2020年10月29日（周四） 14：30-15：30

报告地点：腾讯会议 ID：858 493 714

报告人简介：王开发，博士、西南大学教授、博士生导师，主要从事生物数学与计算医学方面的研究，在病毒感染动力学、临床数据分析和传染病建模方面积累了较丰富的经验。主持国家自然科学基金4项（在研1项）、重庆市自然科学基金2项；论文被Faculty of 1000医学推荐收录1篇；获批国家发明专利2项（第二完成人）；参编专著1本；第一完成人获军队科技进步三等奖1项；曾获军队优秀专业技术人才三类岗位津贴、中国人民解放军院校育才奖银奖。是美国《Mathematical Review》评论员、中国生物数学学会理事、中国医药数学会常务理事、《生物数学学报》常务编委、国家自然科学基金通讯评议专家。

报告摘要：The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, which is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is still severe. In order to optimize the epidemic response strategy, it is urgent to evaluate the implemented prevention and control interventions (PCIs). Based on the reported data of Chongqing and Guizhou Provinces, the phased dynamic models of COVID-19 were constructed, the average intensity of the existing PCIs (from January 25 to March 2) was estimated in these two provinces. The results indicate that both provinces have carried out better control of the infected, but there are still differences in the intensity of control for people who need close observation. Especially in Chongqing, the estimated strength is significantly smaller than that in Guizhou. Furthermore, qualitative evaluations on the epidemic of COVID-19 under different PCIs scenarios suggest that containment strategy is still necessary to ensure the safety of resumption of work and school, and quarantining the city of Wuhan is an important and effective containment strategy to reduce the epidemic in other provinces.